Thanks to a big sell-off on Wednesday and an equally large rally on Thursday, this past week was not quite the typical Christmas to New Years holiday week. But after a year like we had in 2011, I guess this was an appropriate ending.
For the TSP, the C-fund lost 0.58% on the week, the S-fund was down 0.73%, the I-fund gained 0.81%, while the F-fund (bonds) was up 0.74%, and the G-fund was up 0.04%.
For the month, the C-fund was up 1.04% in December, the S-fund slipped 0.04%, the I-fund lost 2.03%, while the F-fund (bonds) gained 1.01%, and the G-fund made 0.15%.
For the year, despite the S&P 500 being slightly down, the C-fund was up 2.11% in 2011 with the help of dividends, the S-fund lost 3.38%, the I-fund dropped 11.81%, the F-fund (bonds) led the way with a 7.89% gain, and the G-fund was up 2.45%.
We start 2012 with the S&P 500 showing mixed signals. The fact that the index is above the 20, 50, and 200-day EMA’s is a big positive, but the the index struggled to get over early December high. The inverted head and shoulders formation is a bullish sign, but buyers will need to step up early this week to keep it above that descending resistance.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The major seasonal advantage we had during the last half of December is over, and except for a freakishly positive bias on the 2nd trading day in January, things get more “normal” in January seasonlity-wise after that.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
We’ll have a lot more to say in our daily commentary this coming week but I will make this holiday weekend wrap-up brief and end it by saying have a Happy Near Year!
Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up.
Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
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