TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

Stocks ended the week on a down note, but overall it was a pretty good holiday-shortened week for the market and all of the TSP stock and bond funds finished with gains. Oil continues to be a drag but the ECB announced a $1.3 trillion QE package and the market loves easy money.


Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending January 23:

The C and S funds are still in the red for 2015 while the I-fund, and particularly the bond fund (F) are leading the way on the upside.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) rallied off of important support keeping the right shoulder of the inverted head and shoulder alive. It has more work to do because without another push higher, there is the possibility of a short-term rounded top being formed.

The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) has held up well but is testing the overhead resistance now. It backed off a little on Friday while we were waiting to see if it would breakout. As we’ve been saying for a few weeks now, this looks like a bullish chart, but it has to breakout to confirm it.


The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) has been leading the TSP stock funds this year and we saw a big rally off of the early January lows. It also made its way above the 50-day EMA, which is a very good sign, but there is still plenty of overhead resistance and the index remains in a bear market. Until it can get back above the 200-day EMA, we have to assume this rally may be short lived.

The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) broke above the key resistance point earlier this month and now it looks to be creating a bull flag. There are a lot of doubters out there that bonds can move higher since yields, which move counter to bond prices, are already extremely low. This is kind of a warning sign for the economy and stocks. Bond yields under 2% don’t equal a strong economy.

Good luck and thanks for reading! We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at TSP Talk Market Commentary. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our premium services can help.

Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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