TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

Stocks opened higher this past Monday but things went sour pretty quickly as volatility picked up, and by Thursday afternoon there was a little bit of panic in the air. On Friday the bulls stepped up and bought the oversold market and we saw some key support levels hold.

Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending May 01:

The I-fund has been blowing away the other funds this year, and the weakness in the small caps recently has allowed the C-fund to catch up some to the S-fund.

And here are the final monthly numbers for April:

I’m getting a lot of inquiries about the price given to the I-fund yesterday (May 01). A few things to keep in mind:

1) The EAFE Index that the I-fund tracks closes before noon ET, which is 4 hours prior to our markets closing.

2) The EFA price at the bottom of tsptalk.com is NOT the I-fund. It is an ETF traded on the U.S. market that is supposed to track the EAFE Index and so we use it for some intraday guidance, but since it is traded like a stock, the price is where the buyers and sellers agree on a price. So while the EAFE is closed, traders are still speculating on a price for EFA.

3) The TSP has to come up with an I-fund price each business day. This where it gets tricky because they have to decide whether to use the actual EAFE number, or to add / subtract “fair value” based on what’s happen in other markets after the EAFE has closed.

The I-fund was given a loss of 0.27% on Friday.

The EFA had a gain of 1.11%.

The EAFE Index actually closed down 0.28% on Friday.

https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search

The EAFE and the TSP will likely adjust on Monday, you’ll see.

More on “fair value”… What is a “FV” and how does it work?

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) fell through the 50-day EMA intraday on Thursday, but the dip buyers were there once again and the rebound continued into Friday. It looks like the uptrend is still intact and another emergency was averted, but resistance just overhead, and the market will be tested again early this coming week.

Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) has been lagging lately and broke down below some key levels in the short-term rising support line and the 50-day EMA. Prior breaks of the 50-EMA earlier in the year didn’t last very long so we’ll see if the small cap bulls are interested at these levels like they were in January.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) has been clinging to the rising wedge after the failed breakout on Monday of last week. Trading above the support line and the 50-day EMA, you’d have to give the nod to the bulls here, but a rising wedge is not the most bullish formation so a break to the upside is very important if this uptrend is going to continue. Being up 10% in the first 4 months of the year will be a hard act to continue, but we’ve have seen this fund have some big years in the past.

Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) broke down a couple of weeks and ago and after an attempt to get back above the broken support line, it was swatted back down and has fallen sharply since. I’d look for a little dead-cat bounce sometime this week, but this chart is in trouble and we should probably be selling the rallies in bonds rather than buying the dips.

Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


Good luck and thanks for reading! We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.php. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our premium services can help.

Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.