TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

The TSP funds saw green across the board this four day week with stocks leading the action, particularly small caps (S-fund). The previous Friday’s rally carried over the three day weekend and continued into Tuesday and Wednesday. Stocks leveled off Thursday and Friday but any losses in those days were modest and overshadowed by the gains produceed by the rallies in first half of the week.

We are in a bear market so the action is likely temporary. Nobody wants to be left behind but, with the typical action of 2016, my guess is most investors are looking to protect their capitol. It will be interesting to see how action will play out next week; traders will look to the news but will mostly be reacting to each other.

The S-fund led this week with a 4.19% gain but still lags the TSP funds for 2016. The F-fund also saw a slight gain despite what you’d expect, usually money is moving out of bonds and into stocks with rallies like these.

Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending February 19th:

The $SPX (S&P 500 / C-fund) opened a gap at Tuesday’s open and again at Wednesday’s open. Resistance was found though and the index pulled back slightly, partially filling an open gap. Open gaps get filled eventually but this chart has possible declining support just under the lower open gap to hold back any falling momentum in the pursuit of closing the gaps. The C-fund lagged with respect to the TSP stock funds with a gain of 2.91% this week.

The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) led the TSP funds in this week’s rally, that may be because it has been the most oversold fund thus far in the 2016 bear market. The resistance that held the S&P 500 was not responsible for the end of the week slow down for this index as it was untested and still lies overhead. Traders may have seen resistance from what I’ve marked with a dotted line coming off the January low and the end of the first week of February. There is a small open gap below but there is declining support above. The S-fund was up 4.19% this week.

EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) broke through declining resistance moving from Tuesday to Wednesday. An open gap from the previous week was filled but the gap up from Monday’s open left another open below what was resistance. The I-fund was up 3.23% this week.

AGG (Bonds / F-fund) fell below support of the rising trading channel Wednesday but was back within the trading channel Thursday. With stocks leveling off Thursday and Friday, bonds were able to produce slight gains for the week despite the rally in stocks. The F-fund was up 0.15% for the week and leads the TSP funds for 2016 with a 2.01% gain on the year.

Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.

Tommy Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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