TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

The rally sparked by the election held up this week just as resistance and an expected seasonality pull-back met. As a result, stocks experienced there first week of losses since November 4th. On queue with past trends, investors took some profits after the surge from the Thanksgiving holiday week and this was even more expected as the holiday rally was a continuation of the rally seen through most of November. Traders are now turning their attention back to the inevitable rise in interest rates from the Fed this month and questioning how this will affect the market.

The jobs report came out Friday with an addition of 178,000 jobs which was near par with the estimates of 180,000. The unemployment rate was expected to stay at 4.9% but rather fell to 4.6% which is the lowest its been since August of 2007.

After continuously outperforming, the S-fund lagged this week with a 1.9% loss. The F-fund led with a 0.07% gain while all the TSP stock funds were in negative territory for the week.

Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending December 2nd:

Here are the TSP fund final monthly returns for November:

The S-fund outperformed with a gain of nearly 8% followed by a new 4% gain from the C-fund. The I and F-fund ended in negative territory with the F-fund lagging.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) pulled back from the tight and steep rising trading channel that began mid-November as it heads back to test the previous highs for support. It is not certain the previous highs will hold as support especially with the open gap from early November along with the uncertainty of the catalyst that will be produced by an increase in interest rates from the Fed this month. The C-fund fell 0.9% this week.

The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) lagged this week as it ran into rising resistance which set up a perfect opportunity for traders to step aside a take some profit. There is an open gap not too far from the current price of the index. The S-fund was down 1.9% this week.

EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) continues to stay within a downward sloping trading channel. The trading channel is also about to collide with an open gap from July. Filling this open gap may give reason to attract traders as we end 2016. The I-fund was down 0.23% this week.

AGG (Bonds / F-fund) may still be with a trading channel that is losing value but bonds were able to end the week in positive territory to outperform the TSP funds this week. The F-fund was up 0.07% this week.

Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.

Tommy Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.