TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

Stocks were up last week and the chart below makes it appear that it was a big week, but the gains were only slight to moderate with the C-fund gaining 0.45% and the small caps picking up 0.27%. The I-fund led the way with a 0.87% gain.

The trading ranges have been tight as the big rally ran out of some steam, but the bulls have remained in charge. The bears have been outnumbered but some overheard resistance in some of the charts may have them getting more aggressive in the coming days and weeks. Unfortunately for the bears, the market is heading into the strongest seasonal period of the year, and that could make their job a little tougher.

Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending November 14:

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) has continued higher but the “straight up” trading channel, which we knew was unsustainable, did break and the overhead resistance in the form of what we call the neckline of an inverted head and shoulder, could cause some problems. But until the bears show any determination, the bulls continue to hold the ball.

We talked about this last week but we’re still watching the resistance of the neckline of that inverted head and shoulders pattern. The current neckline on the S&P 500 is sloping upward, but it could still act as resistance and eventually form the right shoulder (RS).

The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) has a neckline as well, but it is sloping downward and while that means the small caps haven’t hit new highs yet, an inverted head and shoulders pattern is ultimately bullish after a right shoulder pullback has formed.

The EFA (I-fund) has been struggling to recapture the 50-day EMA as it has spent the last two weeks trading just underneath the important 50-day EMA. It’s a nice consolidation and so far the bears have not been able to push it lower to form another lower high, but until it trades above the 50-day EMA, and ultimately the 200-day EMA, this is on the bearish side.

The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) has consolidated since breaking above the descending trading channel, and it has held above the August highs and the 50-day EMA. It’s almost a mirror image of the AGG above. Does that mean they will eventually break in opposite directions? That’s very possible.

Good luck and thanks for reading! We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.php. If you need some help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our premium services can help.

Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.