TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

For stocks it was a week of faded opens. All week we saw stocks open in one direction, only to close in the opposite direction. There seems to be an air of indecision out there. The week ended with a disappointing jobs report, but in a world where down is up and up is down, eventually stocks rallied knowing the weak data could influence the Fed to keep interest rates down. The rally on Friday helped push the S&P 500 into positive territory for the week, while small caps finished slightly lower.

Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending September 5:

Since breaking out to new highs in mid-August, the SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) has been consolidating in the 199 to 201 area. The bulls and bears are jockeying for position but for now, the victor is far from being decided. Trading volume picked up as the week went on.

Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) broke down from a sharp rising trading channel last week, and while breakdowns are warning signs, we knew that angle of incline couldn’t last forever. It is still above the 20-day EMA and technically it still looks good. But it needs to make a new high or we could be looking at the start of a pullback / correction from a double top.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The EFA (I-fund) filled the large open gap that we have been watching near 67.50 and for now, it looks like the top of that gap is acting as resistance. It has not been very clean, but the EFA seems to be trying to stay in a rising trading channel. It closed above the 50-day EMA, which helps.

Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The IEF (Bonds / F-fund) fell sharply after the holiday weekend and has been struggling to rebound back up to fill that open gap. It has also held rather nicely so far, at the old early August breakout point. What are keeping bonds up, I’m not totally sure, but while the IEF remains above the red horizontal support line, it leans bullish for bonds.

Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


Good luck and thanks for reading! We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html. If you need some help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our premium services can help.

Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.