TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

The optimism of trade talks between the U.S. and China Friday kept stocks in positive territory for the week. The new and improved dovish Fed kept investors happy in their Fed minutes Wednesday as they continue to keep their foot on the break with rate hikes while trade negotiations are getting worked out. Weakness followed on Thursday to threaten a loss in value for stocks on the week but the highly anticipated meeting on China Trade and the approving comments of progress from officials push indices to decent gains.

Next week will lead up to the deadline before tariffs on some Chinese imports rise on March 1st. President Trump has made comments about extending that deadline if trade negotiations continue to progress. If the deadline is not extended its likely stocks will react to the potential impact that will have on sectors that rely on Chinese business such as tech.

Bond prices rose this week after rebounding from a slight sell-off Thursday. The current data does not support a rise or fall in bond yields with the Fed keeping rates low at the same time that the U.S. economy shows no signs of falling apart. The F-fund rose 0.11% for the week

The S-fund led the TSP funds with a gain of 0.95%.

Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending February 22nd:

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) sits wedged in a raising trading channel and the possible resistance of the December high. The index tested the rising trading channel on Thursday which held to set up a turn around on Friday in front of the trade talks with China. Trade news will be a catalyst as we lead up the upcoming Chinese tariff deadline. The C-fund rose 0.65% for the week.

The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) lead the rise this week to stay above its November high. The index has been hugging its rising support line tightly the last couple week but it continues to hold strong. There is an open gap below but the index would need to break support to fill it anytime soon. The S-fund was up 0.95% for the week.

EFA (EAFE Index /I-fund) jumped above its 200-day EMA this week as well as surpassed the highs of November. Good move for the chart but there is rising support above and the index ended the week sitting on the highs of November. The I-fund was up 0.88% for the week.

AGG (Bonds / F-fund) broke below the rising support on Thursday but the trading range on the day remained tight so the 20-day EMA was not tested. The index jumped higher the next day and reached a high allowed by rising resistance. This put the index back in the range of the support line that had held in January. The F-fund was up 0.11% for the week.

Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.

Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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